Peak-oil aastaks 2035

Rahvusvahelise Energiaagentuuri poolt täna avaldatud raporti kohaselt ennustatakse maailma naftatoodangu ja pakkumise tipp saavutatavat aastaks 2035, samas kui juba 10 aasta pärast on oodata tavapäraste naftatoodete tootmismahtude maksimumini jõudmist. Kui seda raportit nüüd sõna-sõnalt uskuda, siis on see loomulikult hea uudis, kuna seda nn. “peak-oli” tippu on ennustatud märksa varasemaks ajaks või isegi juba selja taha jäänud aastaks 2000. Teisalt, kuna prognoosid, mis oma olemuselt on kas pikaajalised või globaalsed, ei hiilga tavapäraselt oma täpsusega, siis võib arvata, et tegelik “naftaajastu” tipp saavutatakse juba märksa varasemalt. Kuidas ka ei oleks, aeg mil tuleb maksta 200 dollarit naftabarreli eest, ei pruugi enam kaugel olevat.
Raport iseenesest on kättesaadav ja loetav aadressil: http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/

IEA sees oil supply peak looming, raises price outlook

* Sees global oil output coming close to peak by 2035
* Says oil price to exceed $100 in 2015, $200 in 2035
* Cuts 2035 oil use growth forecast by 6 mbpd to 99 mbpd
By Muriel Boselli and Zaida Espana

PARIS/LONDON, Nov 9 (Reuters) – Global oil supplies will come close to a peak by 2035 when oil prices will exceed $200 a barrel, the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday, as China and other emerging economies drive demand higher. The IEA, in its 2010 World Energy Outlook, said it expected conventional crude oil output to flatten out in the next 10 years.
“Production in total does not peak before 2035, though it comes close to doing so,” the Paris-based IEA said in the executive summary of the report. That projection was according to the central scenario of the report.
The agency, which advises 28 industrialised countries, also raised its mid- and long-term oil price forecasts, despite slashing oil demand estimates by 2035, citing growing supply uncertainty.
Oil prices would rise even further if governments did not act to curb consumption, the IEA’s chief economist and lead author of the report, Fatih Birol, told Reuters in an interview.
“The message is clear, the price will go up, especially if consuming countries do not make changes in the way they consume oil, especially in the transport sector,” Birol said.
Oil hit $87.63 a barrel on Tuesday, the highest since October 2008, after hovering around $70-80 most of the year.

CHINA DRIVES DEMAND
The world needed higher oil prices to change consuming habits substantially and spur investment as markets were becoming less sensitive to price changes, Birol said.
“All the net growth comes from non-OECD countries, almost half from China alone, mainly driven by rising use of transport fuels,” the IEA said in the report.
The growing concentration of oil use in transport and the shift of demand towards subsidised markets were limiting the scope for higher prices to choke off demand, the IEA said.
“If subsidy policy does not change, with increasing price assumptions, these $312 billion in subsidies for 2009 will reach $600 billion in 2015. That’s huge,” Birol said.
While the IEA saw higher prices, it also cut its world oil demand estimate for the next 25 years by 6 million barrels per day (bpd) to 99 million bpd.
That remained an increase of 15 million bpd, equal to one and a half times the output of top global producer Russia.
Conventional crude oil supply would flatten out in the next 10 years, the IEA said.
“Crude oil output reaches an undulating plateau of around 68-69 million barrels a day by 2020, but never regains its all time peak of 70 million barrels per day reached in 2006.”
Last year’s edition of the report said global oil production was not forecast to peak before 2030 and conventional oil production was “projected to approach a plateau towards the end of the projection period.”
(Writing by Alex Lawler; editing by William Hardy) ((muriel.boselli@reuters.com; +33 1 4949 5270; Reuters Messaging: muriel.boselli.reuters.com@reuters.net ))

PARIS, Nov 9 (Reuters) – Oil prices will exceed $200 a barrel in 2035, the International Energy Agency said in its 2010 World Energy Outlook.
In the report released on Tuesday the IEA raised its mid and long-term oil price forecast, despite slashing oil demand growth estimates by 2035, citing growing supply uncertainty.
Oil prices would rise even further if governments did not take significant steps, IEA’s chief economist and author of the report, Fatih Birol, told Reuters in an interview.
“The message is clear, the price will go up, especially if consuming countries do not make changes in the way they consume oil, especially in the transport sector,” Birol said.
He said the world needed higher oil prices to substantially change consuming habits and spur investment as markets were becoming less sensitive to price changes.
(Editing by William Hardy) ((muriel.boselli@reuters.com; +33 1 4949 5270; Reuters Messaging: muriel.boselli.reuters.com@reuters.net ))

 

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